Though I picked Villanova into the Final Four in one of my brackets and into paradise in the other (beating Arizona in the title game), I had a feeling it wasn't their year. That feeling was mostly driven by the feeling that next year would be.
For those into even-year anniversaries (which I believe is just a latent form of OCD), next season will be the 30th since the Wildcats won their first and only national championship -- as an eight seed over Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. The fact alone doesn't mean anything, but the sense of anticipation it will inevitably generate might. Probably, every player on 'Nova's roster will know about it before the season begins. As a result, perhaps they'll be more mentally focused through the year, and, eventually, in the tournament.
Ghosts (of Girlfriend's Past -- a sneaky 2009 Matt McConaughey feature) aside, a better reason for Villanova's chances is their returning roster. None, presumably, will enter the NBA draft, while only James Bell and Tony Shenault will enter the work force. Granted, Bell was their leading scorer this year (14.4 ppg), but he was only .03 points better than their third option, junior JayVaughn Pinkston (who more often should have been their first). Despite an NBA-body and dunk, the shooting guard/small forward was mostly a three point specialist, and a little too streaky for my tastes (37 percent). His absence should give more opportunities to more consistent players like Pinkston and junior shooting guard Darrun Hilliard. Remember, the team shot 35 percent from the field in the loss to Connecticut.
Speaking of Pinkston and Hilliard (who for some reason is always the announcers' favorite on nationally televised games), both have the potential to improve for their senior year. That's especially true for Pinkston, who's shown the more valuable ability to consistently beat his man, but hasn't developed much confidence in his jumper. Encouragingly, he's got nice, sustainable form, but because of Villanova's unselfish offensive scheme, he didn't get enough opportunities to explore it. A solid summer of work might not put him into (former Wildcat) Dante Cunningham territory, but it should get him more attention in Jay Wright's playbook. If it does, Pinkston should get the ball in last shot situations over Ryan Arcidiacono and Hilliard.
Rising junior Arcidiacono should probably work on his shooting this summer too after going 40 percent from the field and 35 percent from three. Actually, those numbers represent an improvement from last season. They also steadily climbed throughout the year. If he had the size and athleticism of Bell, he'd undoubtedly shoot higher percentages. Besides being a smidgen slow, the problem with Arci is he has a shooting guard's skill set and a point guard's mindset. Sometimes, the two qualities clash. Still, he's the guy Jay Wright trusts most (just 1.4 turnovers per game, down from 2.8 last year) and is the team's heartbeat. He'll have to get better, but not much for a Wildcat championship run next season.
The two players with the most room to grow are freshman Josh Hart and sophomore Daniel Ochefu. Of all the Wildcats, Hart played most fearlessly in the first round of the tournament (then had a dud in game 2). On a senior-heavy roster next year, he's probably too unselfish to break into the scoring territory of Hillard and Pinkston. Still, his athleticism, and decent three-point shot should bump his average from 7.8 ppg to over 10.
Ochefu might have the most pro potential of anyone on Villanova's roster. On a more selfish team, he'd already be a double digit scorer. On 'Nova, he looks to pass the ball maybe too much. When he does make an offensive move, it usually looks pretty smooth. Best about Ochefu is his flair for the game. He can dribble and pass better than most 6-foot-11 centers. I don't feel like looking this up, but I'm assuming he had a previous soccer career, a la Hakeem Olajuwon and Joel Embiid. When I look at a player/man-beast like Patrick Young on Florida, however, I see how far Ochefu still needs to come as a rebounder and defender.
Left to assess are rising sophomore Kris Jenkins, who had a rough year but was actually more highly regarded out of high school than Hart and was someone Wright clearly liked based on playing time, and junior-to-be Dylan Ennis, who looked decent at times, but was woeful as a shooter.
Incoming recruits: Two players on ESPN's top 100 will join the Wildcats next year, 6-foot-7 small forward Mikal Bridges (rated 83 out of 100) from Malvern, PA and 6-foot-2 point guard Phil Booth (82) from Baltimore, MD. The top player in the rankings, Jahlil Okafor, was rated 97.
