4:00 p.m. EST, CBS, Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky

I'm not high on Kentucky this year for a few reasons: (1) It's notoriously more difficult to rely on a post player in college basketball (e.g. Julius Randle) than a guard or small forward because bigs tend to develop later these days and college coaches, those defensive-minded junkies, are able to devise more efficient preventative strategies against less versatile paint players than guards, who have the benefit of more floor space and the college-distance three point line (2) It's even more notoriously difficult to rely on a freshman big man, though it has be done before, with each of the two most recent examples credited to Kentucky (DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis). (3) Three out of the four Kentucky teams Calipari has coached have revealed themselves early in the season; two of those three teams were elite, the third was not (though they did lose Nerlens Noel early in the year). Only the 2011 Final Four team experienced regular season distress before regrouping in the tournament. This year, Calipari will clearly have to coach and develop his young talent; last year, he failed to do so. If he does so again, it could hurt his school's reputation as the premier destination for High School All Americans. (4) I don't like the Harrison twins (but I'll give them a chance today).

Louisville might be just as talented as last year's national championship team (I still miss you Peyton Siva!), but Russ Smith reminds me too much of J.R. Smith to feel comfortable picking them to advance too far this year. Perhaps Smith (Russ, that is) has matured; I haven't watched enough of him to decide. Today's game should tell us a lot. Hopefully, it at least partially separates Michigan State and Louisville for me; for some reason, those teams are blending together, perhaps their colors and Christmas is partially to blame. Maybe it's also because Rick Pitino's reign at Louisville is suddenly very comparable to Tom Izzo's tenure at Michigan State.

Neither team has actually beaten a ranked opponent this year. I'm wondering if that stat should really change after this game. By default, one of them has to beat a ranked team today. If it's not a well-played game or if Kentucky loses and falls out of the rankings, I'll have my asterisk ready.

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