Unemployment At Its Lowest Rate In Five Years, But Economy Still Propped Up By Government Aid
ByUnemployment is the lowest it's been in five years, according to the Department of Labor's latest report. The trend persisted across the public and private sectors.
Just as the government shutdown artificially unemployment rates on the last DOL report, however, its conclusion has artificially decreased (slightly) the unemployment rate. Even with that in mind, the report represented a positive sign for the economy, according to the New York Times.
"While the decline in the rate might be overstated, there is nothing here not to like," said Gus Faucher, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. "It is strong across the board."
The work week and average hourly wage also saw improvement, according to Faucher.
The DOL's monthly report has peaked more interest lately (especially on Wall Street) as the Federal Reserve looks to decrease spending intended to stimulate the economy; the healthier each successive report, the more likely the government is to reduce its role, according to the Times. The Reserve had originally targeted last September to begin that process, but the reports weren't yet building towards clear, steady improvement. Economists believe the government will continue to stand pat.
"We think the chance of tapering this month has risen, but on balance we expect the Fed to wait a bit longer," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Michael Gapen, senior U.S. economist at Barclays, agreed with Shepherdson, but was even more specific. "We consider it a strong report but it's not something that would cause the Fed to move," he said. "Our scenario is still March."
Thus, speculators will remain wary until they gain a better picture of the American economy without government aid, according to the Times.