Just three days ago Donald Trump won Iowa but that love affair seemed short-lived as it ditched the Republican's anointed in favor of Cruz in recently held caucuses. The question now is whether Trump will manage to win the Iowans back and win the elections there.
A few days earlier, Trump had a seven-point impressive lead against Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton which seemed to have sealed his win in the Democrat stronghold. The poll average showed trump garnering 46.3 percent against Clinton's 40 percent.
Trump's loss to Cruz was a game changer because it shows that Trump's performance got worse while Rubio's got better. But what are the reasons Trump lost? Some political analysts and experts list different factors as to why it happened.
Cruz's win can be accounted to the large turn-out of evangelicals who made up 64 percent of caucus-goers. The numbers showed that one-third of the evangelical population in Iowa supports Cruz compared to Trump's 2 out of 10.
Aside from the evangelicals, strong conservatives also seem to favor Cruz where he got 40 percent of their nods. Trump, on the other hand, got a high rating from the moderates where he got 34 percent. However, the moderates only represent 14 percent of the Republican voters.
The greatest game changer from the Iowa electorate, however, comes from the first-time voters who showed up in the caucuses. However, not all of these first-timers showed up for the Republican firebrand. Polls revealed that only 3 out of 10 support Trump, just a little above Cruz's 1 out of 5 support.
Despite this recent turnout, experts say that this does not really mean if the numbers will translate to votes.
"While it's true that the ground game matters more in a caucus state than it does in traditional primaries, it is not clear right now whether polling is doing an accurate job of identifying 'likely' voters when it comes to Donald Trump," said Nancy le Thorneau at the Washington Monthly.
