Even as the college and professional game become more alike, the ability to judge incoming prospects, especially at the quarterback position, remains just as difficult. At least the more recent can't miss prospects like Andrew Luck and Cam Newton appear to be close to who they were in college (unlike in the not so faraway past of busted top five picks). Still, as demonstrated by 2012 third round picks Russell Wilson and Nick Foles as well as 2011 second round pick Colin Kaepernick, quarterbacks continue to subconsciously hide their abilities from scouts.

Lately, there's been something of a trend: it's better to draft a sure thing early (like top five early) or take a gamble in the second round or later. Otherwise, picks five through thirty haven't always been kind to teams; none have yielded a top 15 quarterback (meaning those picks were average at best). Let's start with the QB-infamous 2011 draft and move forward.

After Cam Netwon went number one, Jake Locker went at number eight (his value remains to be seen because of injuries, though I actually like his game), Blaine Gabbert was taken at 10 (bust, no longer a starter), and Christian Ponder at 12 (bust, no longer a starter). In the second round came Andy Dalton (a solid but not yet spectacular quarterback, though he may be in that franchise-constraining range of good-but-not-quite-good-enough) and Kaepernick (dynamic quarterback with a playoff pedigree). Ryan Mallet, Ricky Stanzi, Tyrod Taylor, and Greg McElroy also went in the third round or later in that draft.

Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III topped the 2012 draft. Behind them in the first round went Ryan Tannehill at eight (decent spot if he continues to improve) and Brandon Weeden at 22 (old and no longer a starter). In the second came Brock Osweiler (not sure what team he's currently on) and in the third came Wilson and Foles. The fourth round was saved by Kirk Cousins, who's played well so far with the Redskins. No-names Ryan Lindley, B.J. Coleman, and Chandler Harnish went in the sixth and seventh rounds.

In last year's draft, teams opted to save their high draft picks for other positions. E.J. Manuel was the first and only signal caller taken in the first round; he had a so-so rookie year. The first pick of the second round was Geno Smith, who statistically had an atrocious year, but still retains some upside heading into 2014-15. The next quarterbacks were Mike Glennon (looked good), Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, Brad Sorensen, B.J. Daniels, and Sean Renfree. Obviously, it's too early to assess their short careers (if half of them are still on NFL rosters).

After showing restraint during last year's QB-light draft, will teams do the same this year? Most experts don't see early first round talent in any of the quarterback prospects, though at least two of them (Manzel, Bortles) would have probably gone before Manuel last year. Right now, Kiper and McShay have Manzel going fourth (putting him in good range to be a super bowl contending quarterback) and Bortles eight (making him a candidate for an average NFL career).

In light of past draft history, it might be wise for teams outside the top 10 to hold off on a quarterback who is most likely destined for something below stardom, and take a chance in the second round, where they might strike gold or waste their pick. At least if they waste the pick or take someone capable but with a limited ceiling, they don't have to feel committed to a prospect with uninspiring potential.

Consider the Tampa Bay Buccanneers' current situation. They took Mike Glennon last year in the third round. By all accounts, he had a great rookie year and could one day become a top 10 starter in this league. At the same time, he might never improve, or even regress -- like many before him. As a third round pick, the Bucs don't have much invested in him. Thus, they can choose to draft another QB this year without offending or putting pressure on Glennon. Either the competition will make him better, or the other guy will win the job. A pick like Glennon keeps a franchise flexible as they wait on the quarterback to save their team. Maybe it will even be Glennon.