12:15 pm EST, CBS

Live stream link here (stream2watch.me)

The opening game of the NCAA tournament is also one of the most interesting with high potential for bracket busting. In one corner is Dayton (23-10, 10-6), member of the suddenly vaunted Atlantic Ten (six qualifying teams). In the other is Ohio State, undefeated for a third of the season, inconsistent and prone to baffling losses over the next two thirds. Still, the Buckeyes (25-9, 10-8) finished with a better overall record than Dayton (and Kansas, a two seed in the tournament by the way). Both teams are from Ohio.

Only that last part has me worried about the Buckeyes, whom I selected to lose in the Sweet 16 to Kansas. I never feel comfortable when in-state colleges play each other and I'm rooting for the favorite, especially when the favorite is the larger of the two, which they usually are. There's a reason why coaches are reluctant to schedule such games (ask Wichita State about their success in playing Kansas).

Otherwise, Ohio State represents a fairly easy pick over Dayton. Both have a similar record, but Ohio State played the harder schedule. They also have Aaron Craft, who dives for loose balls (in a tournament built on such plays) better than maybe any college basketball in recent history -- see video below. His presence alone guarantees a close game, while Dayton could potentially lose by 10-20 points. For those leaning towards the 11 seed, lean back on that fact alone.

Probably, there is a small hole in my logic -- that teams who don't get blown out represent safer bets than teams who do when all other factors are mostly even -- but it's only a small one . Ohio State hasn't lost by more than 10 all season (to Iowa and @ Minnesota). To be fair, most of Dayton's losses have been close, but they did fall by 14 to VCU, 12 to Rhode Island, and 26 to St. Joseph's.