In their last five games -- all wins including the conference tournament championship game -- Louisville outscored their opponents by 13, 33, 61, 29, and 10 points for a total of 146 points, or 73 two-point field goals, 48 three-point field goals and a two-pointer, and, of course, 146 free throws. For that, a 29-5 record, a share of the conference regular season title, zero losses by more than 9 points, and zero significant non-conference wins, the Cardinals received a four seed while a slew of other major-conference teams with worse winning percentages ascended them.
A somewhat similar tale with a very different ending happened to Virginia. After beginning the year with losses to their toughest non-conference opponents (VCU, 38 points in a loss to Wisconsin, Green Bay, and a 35 point loss to Tennessee) -- besides a win versus SMU (stiffed by the NCAA committee) -- Virginia won the ACC outright, and then won their last three games for the conference tournament title. They received a one-seed.
On Virginia's side was the superiority of the ACC to the AAC and the more impressive wins (at NC State, UNC, at Pitt, Syracuse, Pitt again, Duke) they collected because of it. That's it.
Was the ACC really three seeds (and one win, for Virginia finished 28-6) better than the AAC?
No. And there's no need to go into deeper statistics as proof because no major conference is three seeds and a win better than another major conference.
Perhaps I'm too obsessed with records. Perhaps the NCAA is too obsessed with the difference between a team sporting a 200 RPI and a 150 RPI.
For some reason, the NCAA selection committee severely downgraded the AAC this year despite five ranked teams the last time the AP poll was compiled on Monday. Four made it out (with SMU and their 23-9 missing the cut), but all received seeds a few numbers lower than anticipated: #8 Memphis, #7 Connecticut, and #5 Cincinnati.
Virginia is just one of many teams to which Louisville compares closely in resume but not in seeding. I guess we'll have to wait and see if the AAC can outperform their positions.