The Importance Of Conference Tournaments For Determining Seeds In The NCAA Tournament
ByIt seems like this year more than most, the status of the tournament's number one seeds are largely dependent on the outcomes of conference tournaments. Only #2 Wichita State (34-0, 18-0) and #1 Florida (27-2, 18-0) are virtual locks, even if several not so unlikely scenarios might cast a few percentage points of doubt on their chances. Much of that might have to do with conference realignment, which has hurt the Big East (why eight-loss Kansas is in the same conversation as three-loss Villanova), bolstered the ACC, and spawned the mid-major/major conference hybrid that is the AAC.
How much weight should conference tournaments really carry? At face value, they should represent some of the most important judgments of a team's season. Such games are most relevant to how a team is currently playing while mimicking NCAA tournament play in intensity and atmosphere (most conference tournaments are played on a neutral court, just like the NCAA).
Yet, it's important to consider other factors, too - factors which I'll credit my brother for calling to my attention. Take this afternoon's Villanova-Seton Hall game, for example. As a 'Nova fan, I was worried about the Pirates, who remind me of a lesser version of St. John's - talented, athletic, and wildly inconsistent (they're annually a tough matchup, but rarely win more than 20 games). For Seton Hall's senior members, today's game is most likely their last, meaning they're extra desperate while 'Nova's mindset might be divided between the tournament's later rounds and the upcoming NCAA tournament. On the flip side, Seton Hall has no chance at the NCAA tournament while Villanova has the opportunity to lock in a one seed.
Should the Wildcats overcome their halftime deficit and win today, their following round matchup is probably an even better example of the pitfalls of conference tournaments. They'll face the winner of St. John's/Providence, two bubble teams in need of one more big victory to punch their tickets. Thus, the game inherently means more to them than it does to Villanova, who are guaranteed a two-seed at worst.
With imbalanced motivations at play, the NCAA tournament committee should be wary of overemphasizing the results of conference tournaments. Typically, they don't (based on memory) -- almost giving too much credit to early, out-of-conference matchups. With the creation of the AAC and dilution of the Big East, however, they may have to give them more weight than usual.