Ten teams have a chance for a number one seed heading into their conference tournaments. With the latest A.P. poll finally revealed, their chances stand somewhere close (but not exactly) to that order. Below is what each team needs to do/have happen to attain a coveted (or not so coveted) one seed (in order of most to least likely):

Group A: Fate is 99 percent decided

1. Florida (29-2, 18-0): One win in the conference tournament assures them the top spot (if it's not already assured). Only if they get blown out in the first round -- and Arizona, Villanova, and Syracuse win (in convincing fashion) their conference tournaments -- does Florida have a chance at a number two. But #11 Syracuse (I list them over higher ranked teams because of their four losses, which I believe gives them more jump potential) has probably already done too much damage to itself (as have #6 Virginia and #7 Duke), while #5 Louisville won't be able to pick up the same type of quality wins they would if they were in the ACC (where they'll be in next year). Even if they could, their ascension over Florida would still be doubtful.

2. Wichita State (34-0, 18-0): I almost put the Shockers in the one spot, until I remembered their supporters might not make up for their detractors if things were to go a certain way, like some of the scenarios mentioned above. Could Villanova, Arizona, and either Louisville/Duke/Virginia/Syracuse jump them?

Group A1. Fate is in their hands, but also entering: Michigan/Kansas territory. A1 teams, if they don't win their conference tournaments, could be jumped by both Michigan and Kansas, seven and eight-loss teams, respectively, for whom the A.P. and most of the country has so far shown high respect because of their tough schedules and highly touted rosters.

3. Arizona (28-3, 15-3): In a recent slump and without one of their top three players for the tournament (Brandon Ashley), the Wildcats probably need to win their conference tournament for a one spot if two of the following also win their conference tourneys: 'Nova, Louisville, Virginia/Duke/Syracuse, Kansas, and Michigan. Lucky for them, they play in the worst major conference.

4. Villanova (28-3, 16-2): The Wildcats of the east haven't been ranked this high all year, meaning their won-loss record is simply too clean for their naysayers to ignore (the same ones that put them behind Virginia in the last poll). They're probably going to need to win their conference, too, especially if they lose to the Creighton Blue Jays in the final. Three losses to a single team might be the breaking point for certain members of the NCAA committee. If 'Nova loses a close game to the Blue Jays, I think they'll be passed over by the same group as Arizona. Making their road harder than 'Zona's is, of course, Creighton.

Group B: Conference tournament win and a little help.

5. Syracuse (27-4, 12-4): Call me old school, but with only four losses and the chance for a hot finish over elite ACC teams (in the ACC tournament), the Orange are the only team outside the top five with the potential to maybe -- maybe -- jump Florida. Much more likely, they'll need Villanova or Arizona to lose.

6. Virginia (25-6, 16-2): Their six losses give them slightly more potential than Duke; like 'Cuse, the promise of the ACC tournament gives them more potential than Louisville. The only difference between them and 'Cuse is they have absolutely no chance at passing Florida.

Group B1, Special case: Could grab top seed without winning conference tournament, but could also be jumped by teams ranked below them.

7. Louisville (26-5, 15-3): Conference tournament win by them and any loss by four of the following five -- Villanova, Arizona, Virginia, Duke, and Syracuse -- and they get in. If they win, Virginia/Syracuse wins, and only one team out of Villanova and Arizona wins, they'll have a good shot, but I think they ultimately bow to the ACC winner because of zero important non-conference wins. Also, if 'Nova or 'Zona falls in the first round and they lose in the finals (while none of the other teams in the top 11 win their tournaments), they'll have a (slim) shot. The onus for the Cardinals is a recent 33-point win over Connecticut. Keep those up and it might be enough to sneak past Virginia or 'Cuse.

Back to Group B

8. Duke (24-7, 13-5): The Blue Devils have more than an outside shot at passing Louisville should both win their conference tournaments because of their superior schedule.

Group C: Conference win and more than a little help

9. Kansas (23-8, 14-4): Two of the best players in the country and a ridiculously hard schedule (with a few big wins) mean Kansas has the tie-breaker over every other team -- if they can reach a tying point, of course. They'll need to win the conference tournament and have every team ahead of them lose a game for the chance.

10. Michigan (23-7, 15-3: Same story as Kansas, but a slightly less impressive schedule puts them behind the Jay Hawks should both win out.