There's an article running on ESPN today arguing for why a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament doesn't matter (in terms of winning an NCAA title) as long as a team gets one of the top three seeds. Beyond that, they absolutely do matter, according to the article, which is actually a summary of an earlier piece written last March by Ken Pomeroy on Slate.com.
Basically, Pomeroy found that the order in which he ranks teams before March Madness holds no matter how he re-arranges seeding among the top three -- unless one region happens to feature two or more of his top teams. He gives the example of Kentucky in 2012. When he slotted the No. 1 Wildcats as a three seed in the same region, their chances for winning barely changed (based on the Bill James formula he was using). But when he moved them to a tougher region, their odds dipped substantially. Pomeroy's formula contends that the top teams are equally immune to upsets as either a one seed or a three seed, and that they'll face other top teams at the same point whether they're a one, two, or three.
When it comes to the teams that have the best chance of winning the tournament, Pomeroy is probably correct. But what about teams with high seeds that aren't as good as their ranking? Those programs, if their aim is simply to advance as far as possible but not necessarily win, would likely benefit from a one seed over a three since their ability level is closer to those ranked below them. A one seed has never lost to a 16 seed before -- while every other seed has lost to every other seed -- already a boon to a tepid top seed.
Plus, a one seed doesn't have to face a top three seed until the Elite Eight. For most programs and their fans, that's far enough to lay the crown on a successful season.
Isn't that what the tournament is all about? Only March Madness has a playoff system more exciting in its earlier rounds than its later ones. Having your team win those games, especially if you know they may be slightly overrated or flawed (like I think Duke is this year), can be validating in itself. At least you have hope: your team is still in it. Looking back on a solid Elite Eight or Final Four run isn't done with nearly the same regret with which an NBA fan looks back on a conference semi-final or conference final loss.
