How will the last meeting between #6 Villanova (22-2, 10-1) and #18 Creighton (20-4, 10-2) affect both teams in this afternoon's game (5:00 pm EST, FS1)? The advantage in terms of intangibles will likely be on 'Nova's side. They'll keep this one on a tight leash from the start so it doesn't get out of hand like the last one. Also on their side is the sheer unlikelihood of a repeat of last game, in terms of the barrage of three pointers (mostly from senior Ethan Wragge) Creighton hit for their historical start.
More worrisome for the Wildcats is what led to those three pointers -- failing to guard players one-on-one -- and what happened in the second half, when Creighton relied less on the three and simply beat them with better offense.
"It was a great learning experience for us to know that we had to get a lot better defensively," Villanova coach Jay Wright said on the school's website.
Though that game exposed 'Nova's normally tough defense, it was encouraging, in a way, for their offense. They were mostly getting whatever they wanted -- as deep in the paint as they wanted it -- typified by versatile junior JayVaughn Pinkston (14.9 ppg) and the ease with which he created high percentage shots for himself (he only scored 11 points, but didn't get the ball nearly enough). Thus, this afternoon's game will most likely come down to defense. Creighton can't stop the Wildcats, and the Wildcats may be able to stop Creighton.
"And we had to get better offensively, believe it or not," Wright said of the aftermath following the Creighton game, not as convinced by their offensive performance that night as I was. "We had to find ways on nights when we weren't making shots, to score. I think it helped us to develop our inside game and we've worked a lot on our transition defense. I am still not convinced it's good enough yet, but this is going to be a test."
As a Wildcat fan, a gambler who laid $100 on them for the outright win, and someone against the notion of high ranked teams getting points against significantly lower ranked opponents (Villanova is 3.5 point underdogs), I think 'Nova wins today. In some ways, Creighton should be an easy matchup because of how much more athletic Villanova is. But the Blue Jays are just quick enough to get past their man, activating the Wildcats' trademark help defense that is usually their backbone. With the Blue Jays having an arsenal of three point shooters, none better than their two forwards, Douglas McDermott (25 ppg) and Wragge), the help defense works to their detriment when Creighton is hitting.
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Record: 17-21
Butler @ Creighton: L (picked Butler, +10.5)
UConn @ Memphis: L (picked Memphis, -7.5)
Depaul @ Villanova: W (picked Villanova, -17.5)
Pittsburg @ Syracuse: L (picked Syracuse, -5.5)
Creighton @ Villanova: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)
Baylor @ Kansas: W (picked Baylor, + 10.5)
Indiana @ Michigan State: L (picked Michigan State, -12)
Iowa @ Michigan: L (picked Iowa, + 1.5)
Colorado @ Arizona: W (picked Colorado, + 14.5)
Illinois @ Ohio State: W (picked Illinois, + 11)
Michigan @ Michigan State: W (picked Michigan, + 4.5)
Villanova @ Marquette: W (picked Villanova, -3)
Utah @ Arizona: W (picked Utah, + 15)
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State: W (picked Oklahoma, + 4.5)
Villanova @ Georgetown: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)
Michigan State @ Iowa: W (picked Michigan State, + 5)
St. John's @ Creighton: W (picked St. John's, + 12)
Iowa State @ Kansas: L (picked Iowa State, + 8.5)
Syracuse @ Wake Forest: L (picked Syracuse, -10)
Purdue @ Michigan: L (picked Michigan, -12)
Florida @ Mississippi State: W (picked Miss. State, + 15)
Duke @ Syracuse: L (picked Syracuse, -3)
Xavier @ Villanova: L (picked Xavier, + 10)
Nebraska @ Michigan: L (picked Nebraska, + 13)
Boston College @ Virginia: L (picked Virginia, -13)
Oregon @ Arizona: L (picked Arizona, -11)
Oklahamo State @ Texas Tech: W (picked Texas Tech, + 6.5)
West Virginia @ Kansas: L (picked WVU, + 14)
Maryland @ Virginia: L (picked Virginia, -11)
Iowa State @ West Virginia: L (picked Iowa State, - 1.5)
Michigan @ Ohio State: L (picked Ohio State, -3.5)
Florida @ Tennessee: W (picked Florida, - 1.5)
Syracuse @ Pittsburg: W (picked Syracuse, + 2.5 -- absurd line)
Villanova @ Depaul: W (picked Villanova, -14)
Creighton @ Butler: L (picked Creighton, -8.5)
West Virginia @ Texas: W (picked Texas, -6)
Florida @ Kentucky: L (picked Kentucy, -2)
VCU @ Saint Louis: W (picked VCU, + 4.5)