#3 Florida (21-2, 10-0) thumped Tennessee (15-8, 6-4), 67-41, when the two played in Florida on Jan. 25, the only time the Volunteers have lost by more than 10 points all season. Conversely, they've done a fair amount of thumping in their 15 wins, 13 of which have been by 10 or more. That's an amazing statistic, and one reflected in their season's offense/defensive per game point differentials (10 ppg compared to Florida's 13). They even beat #17 Virginia (20-5, 11-1) by 35 points on Dec. 30. The Volunteers win big on the basis of their strong defense (63.1 ppg) and an offense good enough to post big scores.
It isn't, however, as good as Florida's, not by the numbers or according to Tennessee head coach Cuonzo Martin, who told ESPN he "thought it was the best defense I've seen since I've been a part of Tennessee basketball against any team," following his team's loss to the Gators a few weeks ago.
Florida head coach Bill Donovan pointed out that Tennessee shoots much better at home, and that he's expecting a battle tonight at 7:00 pm EST on ESPN.
Besides big wins against Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, Florida's been playing team's close in the mediocre SEC. This game not only feels like a tight one, it's predicted as such. Vegas Insider has the line at Florida -2.
In a way, Florida should be at its strongest, having recently returned their biggest recruit, freshman Chris Walker, from suspension. Walker has played only seven and four minutes in his two games back, but he's had an impact in both, recording four points (2-2 FG), two rebounds, two blocks and two fouls in the first game (a 10 point win over Missouri) and four points (1-2 FG), one rebound, and two fouls in the next (a nine point win over Alabama). Head coach Bill Donovan is likely cautious of disrupting his team's chemistry and perhaps doesn't yet trust the 6-foot-10 Walker, who's committed four fouls in just 11 minutes.
After picking #11 Iowa State on the road against West Virginia in a similiarly small spread considering the ranking disparity (West Virginia won by over 20 points and were a 1.5 point underdog), I'm going to make the same choice and expect a different result by going with the Gators, -2.
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Record: 12-18
Butler @ Creighton: L (picked Butler, +10.5)
UConn @ Memphis: L (picked Memphis, -7.5)
Depaul @ Villanova: W (picked Villanova, -17.5)
Pittsburg @ Syracuse: L (picked Syracuse, -5.5)
Creighton @ Villanova: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)
Baylor @ Kansas: W (picked Baylor, + 10.5)
Indiana @ Michigan State: L (picked Michigan State, -12)
Iowa @ Michigan: L (picked Iowa, + 1.5)
Colorado @ Arizona: W (picked Colorado, + 14.5)
Illinois @ Ohio State: W (picked Illinois, + 11)
Michigan @ Michigan State: W (picked Michigan, + 4.5)
Villanova @ Marquette: W (picked Villanova, -3)
Utah @ Arizona: W (picked Utah, + 15)
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State: W (picked Oklahoma, + 4.5)
Villanova @ Georgetown: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)
Michigan State @ Iowa: W (picked Michigan State, + 5)
St. John's @ Creighton: W (picked St. John's, + 12)
Iowa State @ Kansas: L (picked Iowa State, + 8.5)
Syracuse @ Wake Forest: L (picked Syracuse, -10)
Purdue @ Michigan: L (picked Michigan, -12)
Florida @ Mississippi State: W (picked Miss. State, + 15)
Duke @ Syracuse: L (picked Syracuse, -3)
Xavier @ Villanova: L (picked Xavier, + 10)
Nebraska @ Michigan: L (picked Nebraska, + 13)
Boston College @ Virginia: L (picked Virginia, -13)
Oregon @ Arizona: L (picked Arizona, -11)
Oklahamo State @ Texas Tech: W (picked Texas Tech, + 6.5)
West Virginia @ Kansas: L (picked WVU, + 14)
Maryland @ Virginia: L (picked Virginia, -11)
Iowa State @ West Virginia: L (picked Iowa State, - 1.5)