Joel Embiid Considering Staying Another Year At Kansas: Why Playing Another College Season Is Almost Always The Best Route
ByKansas center Joel Embiid, currently the projected number one pick by most mock drafts, is considering staying at Kansas for another season, according to ESPN, which leads to an interesting, but probably not perfectly related point, given Embiid's obvious potential: is it beneficial to stay in college an extra year even if it lowers your draft stock?
Let's summarize the actual and hypothetical careers of one young Oklahoma City Thunder player and find out.
Perry Jones was generating top five pick buzz following his freshman season at Baylor (13.9, 7.2 rpg, 55 percent shooting). Either he believed he could work himself up to number one by the next season or knew in his heart he wasn't even a lottery pick; he stayed another year, posted a near identical stat line (actually slightly worse), and gave NBA scouts a clearer picture of who he was: still a player with vast potential, but probably not top five pick potential nor was he someone who could contribute right away, which those at the top of the draft are generally expected to do.
Jones was eventually taken with the 28th pick in the 2012 draft by one of the NBA's model franchises. He averaged 2.3 ppg on 7 mpg his rookie season, and is posting just 3.6 ppg and 12 mpg during his second season. Yet, he's viewed outside and within the Thunder organization as an asset, a still developing player with intriguing potential.
Bleacher Report wrote an article earlier this year wondering if the seven-footer (probably an inch or two shorter) should be playing more. Just five days ago, the Oklahoman praised him for guarding Lebron during the Thunder's big win over the Heat last week. Perry Jones could be the most coveted 3 point per game scorer in the NBA.
Consider the reverse scenario. Jones is taken #4 in the 2011 draft by a less resourceful franchise. He averages more minutes and subsequently more points and rebounds. Yet, his team quickly realizes he's lacking something they expected with the #4 pick. They realize he's going to take time to develop, more time than they'd hoped (or not, if they were simply trying to tank again that season for another high draft pick).
Perhaps Jones develops faster with more minutes, or perhaps he begins a path towards NBA nomad-acy (the generic brother of Quincy Acy), a worse version of Michael Beasely and the Kings' Derrick Williams. In a way, the outcome doesn't matter. The safer scenario is with the Thunder, defying expectations slowly rather than failing to live up to them quickly.
"He's a bright young man and he's going to weigh his options," Kansas coach Bill Self said of Joel Embiid. "He's considering coming back and he's obviously also considering leaving. He can't make a bad decision."
If he truly is NBA-ready, then he can't make a bad decision. If he isn't, he should stay another year in college and let the league find out the easy way.