I was ready to proclaim this a letdown game for #10 Michigan (15-4, 7-0) and it still may be, but the spread (-12) isn't quite large enough for me to get comfortable with visiting Purdue (13-7, 3-4). That's how good the Wolverines have been lately and in the conference overall. Over their last three games, they've beaten two teams ranked #3 at the time (Wisconsin and Michigan State) and then #10 Iowa (now #15).

Against lesser teams, however, they haven't realized their blowout potential. Unless you're North Carolina, you should be able to win comfortably against less talented teams -- if all things go right and you are as good as you've been playing. Michigan hasn't dominated a conference opponent since beating Northwestern (11-11, 4-5) 74-51 on Jan. 5. If my betting hunches mean anything (so far they've meant a 10-9 record, see below), tonight's game will be a chance for the Wolverines to explore a big lead during the peak of their hot streak.

To their credit, Purdue has lost just two games all year that would cover the current spread, except they haven't played a team as hot as these Wolverines (though they did pay Ohio State and Oklahoma State relatively tough). They've dropped their last two, the last one to a struggling Wisconsin squad by 14 points.

Statistically, the Boilmakers are quite the odd team and lack the star power of years past when they had Robbie Hummel, E'Twaun Moore, and Jajuan Johnson. Leading scorer Terone Johnson averages just 13.4 ppg on 42 percent shooting. Second leading man Ronnie Johnson shoots a similarly poor percentage (43 percent) and nets in 10.6 ppg. Beyond that is a legion of 4 to 10 point scorers. Somehow, their offensive attack (74 ppg) creates just 3 less points than Michigan's (77 ppg).

Michigan, of course, has a little more star power in sophomore guard Nik Stauskas (18 ppg) and sophomore forward Glenn Robinson III (13 ppg) -- whose father attended Purdue. Wil that last tidbit come into play? Probably not, though Robinson III hasn't always been the most consistent player. My gut tells me it could hold a slightly negative effect, but not enough to threaten the cover. I hope.

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Regular season: 10-9

Picking Schedule:

Butler @ Creighton: L (picked Butler, +10.5)

UConn @ Memphis: L (picked Memphis, -7.5)

Depaul @ Villanova: W (picked Villanova, -17.5)

Pittsburg @ Syracuse: L (picked Syracuse, -5.5)

Creighton @ Villanova: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)

Baylor @ Kansas: W (picked Baylor, + 10.5)

Indiana @ Michigan State: L (picked Michigan State, -12)

Iowa @ Michigan: L (picked Iowa, + 1.5)

Colorado @ Arizona: W (picked Colorado, + 14.5)

Illinois @ Ohio State: W (picked Illinois, + 11)

Michigan @ Michigan State: W (picked Michigan, + 4.5)

Villanova @ Marquette: W (picked Villanova, -3)

Utah @ Arizona: W (picked Utah, + 15)

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State: W (picked Oklahoma, + 4.5)

Villanova @ Georgetown: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)

Michigan State @ Iowa: W (picked Michigan State, + 5)

St. John's @ Creighton: W (picked St. John's, + 12)

Iowa State @ Kansas: L (picked Iowa State, + 8.5)

Syracuse @ Wake Forest: L (picked Syracuse, -10)