One of my favorite college basketball teams of this year, #18 Iowa (16-4, 5-2) against a less-than-favorable spread, -5, puts me between in the no man's land between a blocking foul and a charge. My personal record (8-7, see below), however, is more important. Plus, a 1-4 point win by the Hawkeyes satisfies both of my needs. Early prediction: #7 Michigan State (18-2, 7-1) with the cover.

Maybe the Spartans aren't quite as good as their record right now because of the odd injury to leading rebounder Branden Dawson and the persistent foot injury affecting center and second-leading scorer Adreian Payne (doubtful tonight), but they last played one of the hottest teams in the country, #10 Michigan (16-4, 7-0), rather closely, 80-75, albeit to a loss on their home floor. As we saw when Iowa and Michigan played (and Iowa lost by 7), the Hawkeyes, as much as I love them, aren't quite Michigan. Plus, the Spartans will be one game better adjusted to handle the loss of Payne and Dawson.

That's how the Spartans are to be judged at this point -- in comparison to what they've lost. Given that Payne is expected back soon and Dawson should return before the tournament, mentally they should be in a good place, which is why what Michigan is currently doing is quite remarkable. They lost sophomore forward Mitch McGrary early in the season (and for season) amid a poor start. Instead of continuing as a mediocre team, they've raised their play since, no player more than Nik Stauskas (whom I always think is Russian with blonde hair but is actually Canadian with dark hair). The question for Michigan State is: are they a team better suited to rally on a temporary basis or, like Michigan, change their identity?

I'm banking on the former, which is why I think they'll rebound and lose a close one tonight. Iowa is a very good team, and they're constantly aware of how a loss could affect their national standing.

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Regular season: 8-7 (won 6 of 7)

Picking Schedule:

Butler @ Creighton: L (picked Butler, +10.5)

UConn @ Memphis: L (picked Memphis, -7.5)

Depaul @ Villanova: W (picked Villanova, -17.5)

Pittsburg @ Syracuse: L (picked Syracuse, -5.5)

Creighton @ Villanova: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)

Baylor @ Kansas: W (picked Baylor, + 10.5)

Indiana @ Michigan State: L (picked Michigan State, -12)

Iowa @ Michigan: L (picked Iowa, + 1.5)

Colorado @ Arizona: W (picked Colorado, + 14.5)

Illinois @ Ohio State: W (picked Illinois, + 11)

Michigan @ Michigan State: W (picked Michigan, + 4.5)

Villanova @ Marquette: W (picked Villanova, -3)

Utah @ Arizona: W (picked Utah, + 15)

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State: W (picked Oklahoma, + 4.5)

Villanova @ Georgetown: L (picked Villanova, -6.5)