Any bookie knows it isn't prudent to pick an underdog you don't believe has a chance at winning (when the spread is within reason). Even if an Auburn upset wouldn't be a shocker by any means, tonight's Florida State-Auburn game doesn't have the feel of a spread pick, as most title games tend not to. Picking Auburn for the win is the right (and most profitable) choice.

Both supporting and hurting the Tigers' chances, Florida State hasn't played a game decided by less than 14 points all season (a 48-34 win over Boston College on Sept. 28) with their next closest a 27 point victory over then #7 Miami on Nov.2. If this one stays close, perhaps they may make a mistake simply because they've never been in that situation before.

Auburn, of course, has a wealth of close game experience. Perhaps most telling was their miracle win against Georgia on Nov. 16. Without experiencing the agony of feat (and keeping their momentum), they were able to see how a close game would be lost without actually losing it, thanks to the tipped touchdown pass on 4th and long.

Auburn's next best case is their conference, ranked higher this year than maybe its ever been. The SEC proved its worth in bowl season; all of its ranked teams won, except Alabama and Georgia (winners include Missouri, South Carolina, LSU, and Texas A&M). By the rankings, Florida State played in a much weaker conference, however, part of that was due to the Seminole's own dominance, including blowout wins over then #25 Maryland, then #7 Miami, and then #3 Clemson.

Auburn will be Florida's most capable opponent to date, but maybe not by as much as people once thought after Clemson finally won a big game, 40-35 over #7 Ohio State. That victory only makes the Seminoles look more dangerous. Luckily for the Tigers, they've got as many impressive wins this season as anybody and last game stopped a surging Missouri team that will likely finish among the top four in the final AP rankings.

Players and statistics aside, an opponent-by-opponent matchup and the cosmos of sports history give Auburn more than a fighting chance at victory.