Scientists at Boulder's National Center for Atmospheric Research in partnership with University of Maryland have developed a computer model that can accurately predict the growth and behavior of wildfires.
Scientists said that the technique incorporates satellite data of active wildfires with sophisticated simulations of the interactions of fire and weather to offer its predictions.
"With this technique, we believe it's possible to continually issue good forecasts throughout a fire's lifetime, even if it burns for weeks or months," NCAR scientist Janice Coen, said.
"This model, which combines interactive weather prediction and wildfire behavior, could greatly improve forecasting--particularly for large, intense wildfire events where the current prediction tools are weakest," Environmental News Network reports.
Coen said that the model not only warns about the effects of winds on fire, but also calculates the fire's effects on weather.
"As the fire consumes fuel, it produces heat and water vapor," she said. "This makes the air warmer than the air around it, so it wants to rise, and more air has to move in to the base of the column to replace it, so that affects the winds near the fire," Daily Camera reports.
Coen said that this method is useful in foreseeing sudden blowups, shifts in the blaze and helps officials know which wildfires pose the most danger to the community.
The current methods are weak and have the inability to anticipate large fires that lead to more catastrophes. Last year, due to wildfires in the U.S., over 9 million acres were burned.
"Lives and homes are at stake, depending on some of these decisions, and the interaction of fuels, terrain, and changing weather is so complicated that even seasoned managers can't always anticipate rapidly changing conditions," Coen said. "Many people have resigned themselves to believing that wildfires are unpredictable. We're showing that's not true," Nature World News reports.
The study has been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
