Atmospheric Patterns Will Allow U.S. Meteorologists to Predict Heat Waves Weeks in Advance
ByHeat waves will likely be joining severe storms in long-term weather forecasting, as scientists have found a way to see them coming weeks in advance, according to a press release.
In new research, scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) discovered an atmospheric pattern above the Northern Hemisphere that will allow meteorologists to predict summer heat waves at least two weeks ahead of time.
Just like a snowstorm, lack of preparation for heat waves can be deadly, as chances of dehydration and heat stroke skyrocket.
"It may be useful to monitor the atmosphere, looking for this pattern, if we find that it precedes heat waves in a predictable way," said study lead author and NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng. "This gives us a potential source to predict heat waves beyond the typical range of weather forecasts."
In their study, published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience, the researchers analyzed a 12,000-year simulation of the atmosphere high above the Northern Hemisphere. Whenever a "wavenumber 5" pattern appeared, the U.S. was in for a major summertime heat wave.
Wavenumber 5 refers to a sequence consisting of five high and five low alternating pressure systems.
Heat waves are a direct result of a warming climate and are one of the most dangerous weather events on Earth. A heat wave in Europe in 2003 was reportedly responsible for 50,000 deaths. In 2006, a North American heat wave killed as many as 600 in California alone.
Currently, meteorologists are not able to predict a heat wave more than ten days in advance. Previous methods of predicting these weather events correlated with periods in the year known as El Niño and La Niña in the Tropics. The new method hopes to end that level of unpredictability.
"There may be sources of predictability that we are not yet aware of," Teng said. "This brings us hope that the likelihood of extreme weather events that are damaging to society can be predicted further in advance."