Parts of the Persian Gulf region could be hit with unprecedented events of deadly heat as a result of climate change within the century, according to a recent study.
After looking at high-resolution climate models, researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Loyola Marymount University revealed details of a business-as-usual scenario for greenhouse gas emissions. However, they also found that curbing emissions could forestall these deadly temperature extremes.
Researchers said that those conditions in the Persian Gulf region, including its shallow water and intense sun, make it "a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future."
For the study, researchers Elfatih Eltahir and Jeremy Pal ran high-resolution versions of standard climate models. They found that many major cities in the region could exceed a tipping point for human survival, even in shaded and well-ventilated spaces. Eltahir said this threshold "has, as far as we know ... never been reported for any location on Earth."
That threshold for survival for more than six unprotected hours is 35 degrees Celsius, or about 95 degrees Fahrenheit, according to recently published research. (The equivalent number in the National Weather Service's more commonly used "heat index" would be about 165 F.)
According to the study, this limit was almost reached this summer, at the end of an extreme, weeklong heat wave in the region: On July 31, the wet-bulb temperature in Bandahr Mashrahr, Iran, hit 34.6 C -- just a fraction below the threshold, for an hour or less.
But the severe danger to human health and life occurs when such temperatures are sustained for several hours.
The Persian Gulf region is especially vulnerable because of a combination of low elevations, clear sky, water body that increases heat absorption, and the shallowness of the Persian Gulf itself, which produces high water temperatures that lead to strong evaporation and very high humidity.
The models show that by the latter part of this century, major cities such as Doha, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, and Bandar Abbas, Iran, could exceed the 35 C threshold several times over a 30-year period. Eltahir said hot summer conditions that now occur once every 20 days or so "will characterize the usual summer day in the future."
The findings are detailed in the journal Nature Climate Change.
