A pair of scientists published a study on "gray swan" storms in an attempt to figure out a way to project when the extremely rare, potent, yet unpredictable weather events.
Ning Lin, of Princeton University, and Kerry Emanuel, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), collaborated on the study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. They also identified Tampa, Fla., Cairns, Australia, and Dubai, United Arab Emirates as three cities at a heightened risk of experiencing such storms.
According to The Washington Post, the researchers took the term "gray swan" from the "black swan" term used to describe unpredictable traumatic event like a stock market crash or terrorist attack. The researchers aimed to find a way to predict "gray swan" storms, despite how profoundly scarce they are.
"These are all locations where either no one's anticipated a hurricane at all, such as in the Persian Gulf, or they're simply not aware of the magnitude of disaster that could occur," Emanuel said in a press release. "In the realm of storms, I can't really think of an example in the last five or six decades that anybody could call a black swan.
"For example, Hurricane Katrina was anticipated on the timescale of many years. Everybody knew New Orleans was going to get hammered. Katrina was not meteorologically unusual at all."
The researchers believe these gray swans will become more common in the next century as global climate change is projected to intensify. However, the researchers stated any hurricane on record qualifies as predictable, meaning Earth has yet to experience a gray swan storm.
"We are considering extreme cases," Lin said in a press release. "These are relevant for policy making and planning, especially for critical infrastructure and nuclear power plants."
