Premature Deaths Could Fall by 40% in the Next 20 Years
ByThe number of premature deaths could be reduced by 40 percent over the next two decades, according to a recent study.
The findings reveal that, between 2000 and 2010, child deaths fell by one-third worldwide, helped by the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) to reduce child deaths by two-thirds; and premature deaths among adults fell by one-sixth, helped by MDG 5 to reduce maternal mortality and MDG 6 to fight AIDS, malaria and other diseases. With expanded international efforts against a wider range of causes, these rates of decrease could accelerate.
This means that between 2010 and 2030, under-50 mortality could be halved and a third of the deaths between the ages 50 to 69 years could be prevented. The 40 percent reduction from 2010 to 2030 in deaths before age 70 would involve reductions of two-thirds in the causes already being targeted by the MDGs, and a one-third reduction in other causes of premature death, such as non-communicable diseases and injuries.
"Death in old age is inevitable, but death before old age is not," Richard Peto, co-author of the report and professor of medical statistics at the University of Oxford, said in a statement. "In all major countries, except where the effects of HIV or political disturbances predominated, the risk of premature death has been decreasing in recent decades, and it will fall even faster over the next few decades if the new UN Sustainable Development Goals get the big causes of death taken even more seriously."
Researcher said that with political commitment and sustained efforts to improve health, the current rate of decline in premature death can be further accelerated.
"We conclude that a 40 percent reduction in premature deaths is realistic in each country where mortality in 2030 is not dominated by new epidemics, political disturbances or disasters," said Ole Norheim, lead author of the study.
The United Nations General Assembly at its meeting in New York this month is discussing 17 Sustainable Development Goals for 2016-2030 to replace the MDGs that expire at the end of 2015.