Destructive weather disasters are likely going to become more common across the U.S. due to climate change, according to new research from Stanford University.
Not only will the weather disasters continue, but the monetary damage they cause. 11 weather disasters caused damage of at least a billion dollars, according to a Stanford news release.
Researchers developed advanced weather models that suggest conditions known to cause severe rainfall, hail and tornadoes will only increase.
Lead researcher Noah Diffenbaugh, an associate environmental Earth science system professor at Stanford, and his team believe they have created the most comprehensive severe weather projections for the next century.
The researchers said a severe storm must have what is known as convective available potential energy (CAPE). As the warm air rises, it carries moisture into the higher altitude. CAPE, which is created by air in the low atmosphere warming, must interact with a moving wind current in a certain way to sustain a storm.
"We're seeing that global warming produces more days with high CAPE and sufficient shear to form severe thunderstorms," said Diffenbaug.
The new climate model, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), gives the researchers a way to gauge CAPE and ultimately predict the likelihood of a severe storm.
The analysis of the model showed the biggest increase to come in the spring. By the late 21st century, America will experience nearly three more storm days each spring. The researchers also concluded that severe storms will increase in fall and autumn as well.
"We are looking at the conditions that produce severe events, which are relatively rare at present," Diffenbaugh said. "For example, the changes during spring represent an increase of about 40 percent over the eastern U.S. by the late 21st century."
He also said the increase becomes more significant when the damage done by single storm is taken into account.
"The severe thunderstorms we experience now can result in very high economic losses," Diffenbaugh said. "Sadly, we have many examples of cases where a single storm has had disastrous impact. So a 25 or 30 percent increase in the annual occurrence represents a substantial increase in the overall risk."
